Eleven Shocking Green Engineering Numbers

Mark Twain once quipped, “There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” It is hard to appreciate that in the late 1800s the science of statistics was relatively new and was used to sway politicians as well as the public. The science is older now, yet not much has changed. Numbers and statistics are often the weapon of choice to sway opinion (and to win stimulus dollars). But beware — the messenger chooses the data, the method of analysis, and the point of attack. Twain’s quote reminds you to understand the motives of the person or organization using the numbers and statistics. Yet, statistics are overwhelmingly showing that green engineering and affordable energy are the technical challenges of the current times. Many of the green engineering numbers might be surprising, but at the same time inspirational. Here are a few numbers to reflect on.

2: For new technology to be adopted, it often must be nearly two times better than the existing solution. Behavioral economics experiments by 2002 Nobel Prize in economics winners, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people are often unwilling to take a bet even if the payoff on a fair coin toss is dramatically in their favor. The point at which many start taking the bet is when the payoff is about 1.5 to 2 times the potential loss (heads they win $100 and tails they lose $50). Economists call this behavioral tendency the “endowment effect.” It seems that people get more pain from a loss than pleasure from a gain of the same size.

Endowment effect experiments have shown economists that consumers often do not want to take risk. They have a tendency to overvalue what is in their possession and undervalue an alternative possession or solution. They do not want to change from their current solution to a new technical solution for a tiny economic benefit of just a few percent. There must be a big upside to get them to switch to something new. What this could mean for new energy technologies such as electric cars is that the new technology (electric plug-in vehicles) may need to provide significant economic benefits over the existing solutions (combustion engine vehicles). In engineering terms, inertia is a strong force.

 0.5 to 1: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that less than 1 percent of the energy generated in North America in 2007 came from solar energy. Depending on the location on Earth, about 100 to 200 watts of solar energy reaches one square meter of surface land. In the past, solar cell efficiency has ranged from 10 to 20 percent. In research labs, new technologies are reaching 30 percent and more. However, scaling these technologies so that they can be manufactured and deployed inexpensively seems to be the challenge. Simple ratios often tell a story. For example, in a city such as Austin, Texas that has an approximate population of 750,000 people and area of 651 square kilometers, with roughly 250 sunny days, and using a solar cell efficiency of 15 percent, there would need to be a large field of solar cells that covers half the area of Austin to power the city. This back-of-the-envelope calculation, which includes a lot of assumptions, results in a ratio of 0.5 solar field area to one city area. By the way, Austin is not densely populated. Other cities will have a ratio closer to 2 to 1. On the other hand, according to the “The Skeptical Environmentalist” by Bjørn Lomborg, under ideal circumstances a solar farm with an area just five percent of the Sahara Dessert could fuel all of the Earth’s energy needs.[1]

1/3: Micropower (a term coined by Amory Lovins from the Rocky Mountain Institute that describes small distributed generators from solar, wind, and biomass) now provides 1/6 to 1/2 of all electricity in a dozen other industrial countries besides the United States, and it is estimated that micropower delivered 1/3 of the world’s new electricity generation in 2006 (the last year for which there is data). Micropower is winning adoption because of lower capital cost, quick up time, and lower financial risk compared to big centralized plans.[2]

150 billion: The estimated worldwide amount of stimulus spending for clean energy is $150 billion USD. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act allocates $41.3 billion USD for spending and tax credits.

50: According to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007, 50 percent of electrical energy in the United States is derived from coal .

60 billion: As reported by the EIA, 60 billion is the estimated amount of energy consumed by mankind in all forms if equated into barrel of oil equivalents (BOEs).

7 and 11 billion: North America uses 7 billion barrels of oil a year and another 11 billion BOEs of electricity a year.

1006 billion: The approximate number of barrels of oil produced since oil was discovered at a depth of a few feet by Commodore Drake in Pennsylvania in 1859 is 1006 billion – that is just a little more than one trillion. The projections are that another one trillion barrels of known reserves are left. With that in mind, it is also good to remember that in 1955, geologists and experts projected that given the technology of the time there were a few decades worth of known reserves left. In the past, technology has always eventually extended the known reserves. Will this trend end? No one really knows. However, there is a finite amount of oil and there seems to be a common belief today that it has reached the “peak point.” The bottom line is that the last one trillion barrels of oil will be harder to bring to the surface.

1500: Think of a 1500-watt light bulb that never turns off. That is the average amount of energy consumed per capita in the United States for homes, businesses, schools, and so on. Put another way, each person is responsible for 15 100-watt bulbs running continuously.  

19.4: The number of pounds of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitted into the atmosphere per gallon of gasoline as reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). To follow the calculations directly, visit Emission Facts: Average Carbon Dioxide Emissions Resulting from Gasoline and Diesel Fuel.  

The primary determinants of carbon dioxide emissions per gallon of gasoline are the amount of carbon content per gallon (2,421 grams), the oxidation factor, and the molecular weight of CO₂ and carbon. The result is that 19.4 lbs of CO₂ are produced per gallon of gasoline. In other words, if your car gets 20 miles per gallon, you are throwing a pound of trash, CO₂, out the window every mile. Everyone can see the litter on the side of the road, yet no one sees the carbon dioxide.

44: Based on a 2008 National Instruments survey, 44 percent of National Instruments customers are using NI hardware and software in energy-saving or green applications. The applications ranged from machine and process optimization, power quality and monitoring, environmental monitoring, new renewable power generation, and testing green products.

It is hard to imagine a steel company positioning itself as green, yet Nucor Corporation is a steel producer that has had success in lowering its energy usage and cost. See how Nucor is saving energy with NI CompactRIO programmable automation controllers (PACs) and NI LabVIEW software.

Mark Twain also quipped, “The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to the future.” It is hard to predict what the future will be for clean and efficient energy. Yet, a certainty is that engineers and scientist will lead the way with new discoveries and solutions that will address our energy and climate challenges.

Find out how National Instruments customers are implementing green engineering solar, wind, and environmental monitoring applications.

Share your green engineering number or any other thoughts on green engineering.

- John Hanks
John Hanks is the vice president of industrial and embedded product links at National Instruments. He hold a bachelor of science in engineering from Texas A&M University and received a master of science in engineering from the University of Texas at Austin.

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